Time flies, blinking into November, this year China’s “gold, nine silver and ten” seems to disappoint many people in the industry, shipping market is still flat, did not appear in the past year’s lively scene. With only two months to go until 2019, in other words, there is not much time left for the market. Can the last battle of this year come?
In recent years, the Baltic Dry Bulk Index (BDI) has been flat, fluctuating at 1500 points all the time, with no obvious rise. The two main factors affecting BDI are obvious differentiation between BCI and BPI. BCI is a low-level rise and BPI is a high-level fall. This is closely related to the changes in market activities. It can be seen that shipping activities are relatively poor in the world as a whole.
For China, it is affected by trade friction between China and the United States. As for iron ore, due to the unexpected arrival of iron ore from Australia and Brazil, as well as the landing of various domestic infrastructure projects, and the northern part of the country is in the pre-winter construction rush period, the demand for iron ore is large, which makes the domestic iron ore ports more destocking efforts, the demand for replenishment gradually released, and the international market. The field plays a stimulating role.
As for coal, the quota for importing coal in 2018 is constantly consuming and the import volume in the remaining months is shrinking. The total import volume of coal and lignite in China is 228.319 million tons from January to September of this year. If the import volume this year is equal to the total import volume in 2017, the quota for the remaining three months is only 42.581 million tons, or the average monthly import volume is about 14.2 million tons. Far less than the first 9 months of this year’s imports.